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Rand Fishkin on the SEO opportunity pie shrinking and more insights – Search Engine Land

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Rand Fishkin published some great new research on how people use Google today. You can read my take on that research in Surprising data: 15% of Google searches are driven by only 148 terms.
I reached out to Fishkin to dig deeper into the implications of his new analysis and some of the insights he shared at BrightonSEO San Diego last month.
Here are highlights from my recent Q&A with Fishkin. Quotes have been lightly edited for brevity.
Most surprising finding. Fishkin’s biggest surprise from the data was the size of the fat head:
Get creative. During his BrightonSEO keynote, Fishkin discussed the future of marketing as “zero-sum” — meaning that to win people’s time or attention, you’ll have to steal it from someone else. We’ve just about reached the peak of everything online.
For example, almost everybody in the U.S. has Internet access now and the amount of time they spend online isn’t growing. Here’s what Fishkin thinks this means for us:
Influence vs. clicks. Search marketers are tasked with getting visibility and clicks. However, search is about more than just clicks. Especially now, when 60% of Google searches end without a click.
Informational intent. For many years, brands have created informational content with the goal of reaching people at the start of the buying journey. And 52.65% of Google searches are informational, according to Fishkin’s analysis.
Now we’re in the age of AI Overviews, and Google can answer many of those informational queries using generative AI. So, should brands and creators continue creating informational content meant to rank well or is this becoming an outdated tactic? Fishkin’s take:
Peak SEO. Andrew Holland recently wrote about the coming SEO career crisis. And SEO jobs listings were down earlier this year, though anecdotally, that seems to have turned around somewhat in recent weeks.
What does this mean for SEOs? Is it time to reskill or rethink your day-to-day activities (i.e., get away from the SEO checklist mentality)? Here’s what Fishkin had to say:
Organic traffic vs. revenue. Wil Reynolds wrote about how his organic traffic declined but revenue remained flat. SEO, undoubtedly, still has value for brands of all sizes. But has the value of organic traffic perhaps been “overestimated” or “overvalued”? Fishkin’s thoughts:
Social search. I’ve seen many arguments on LinkedIn about how social search isn’t search (e.g., is TikTok a search engine?). Because when we talk about search, for 20+ years, search has meant Google Search. I was curious for Fishkin’s take on whether the “Google only” focus will need to change:
Build on rented land. You may have heard Fishkin discuss the importance of focusing your efforts on your website and email list for about two decades. Now, he’s convinced he was wrong – that you should build on rented land. Here’s why:
SEO in 2025. I was curious how Fishkin will approach SEO in 2025. Especially in light of his latest research.
Fishkin also shared one SEO “tip” for 2025 (which he said to take with a grain of salt because he hasn’t been in the SEO field for seven years):

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